Reports suggest that the successor to the Switch will be an update rather than a radical departure. Here’s why Nintendo’s right to be wary of launching a new console…
One cold January day in 2017, Nintendo invited a bunch of bloggers and journalists to a hands-on preview event for its then-unreleased Switch console. It’s a day this writer will never forget – not least because of the indelible sight of some PR people dressed as stereotypically American-style farmers (dungarees, straw hats, that sort of thing), rapidly moving their clenched fists up and down. They were playing a mini-game in 1-2-Switch that involved milking an invisible cow, but as I wrote at the time, “if you’re of a juvenile mindset, it looks like utter filth.”
Suggestive hand movements aside, there was also an unforgettable atmosphere in the room. Far from a note of arrogant swagger you might expect from one of the world’s biggest gaming companies, there was instead a hint of uncertainty. As I sat playing Super Bomberman R via a tiny Joy-Con, a PR person asked me what I thought of the console and seemed faintly surprised when I said that I liked it.
The source of that uncertainty was, almost certainly, the tepid reception that greeted the Wii U five years earlier. Having sold around 13 million units over its lifetime, it was considered a disappointment for Nintendo in the light of the 101 million sales enjoyed by its predecessor, the Wii.
In retrospect, the Switch was essentially the console the Wii U should have been – a fully-fledged hybrid of handheld and traditional under-the-telly system, with its detachable Joy-Con providing a backwards nod to the Wii’s remote and nunchuck controllers – even as its improved resolution and online capabilities provided a small but welcome step towards parity with rival current-gen systems.
Nintendo evidently hit a chord with the Switch, given that it has sold over 130 million units and counting – making it an even bigger success than the Wii, and placing it not far behind the Nintendo DS, which sold 154 million handhelds across its lifespan.
With numbers like that, it’s hardly surprising that Nintendo hasn’t exactly rushed to push a replacement console under the public’s noses. While the Switch was announced in 2016, just four years after the launch of the Wii U, Nintendo has opted to keep the Switch’s replacement firmly under wraps.
A version of the next-gen console has reportedly been shown off to industry types at closed-doors events, but as the Switch’s seventh birthday approaches, nothing official has yet emerged.
The Switch’s success may also give Nintendo’s marketing strategists pause, given the firm’s recent history. When Nintendo has enjoyed a runaway success with a console, the sales of its successor haven’t matched the same highs, at least since the turn of the millennium. The GameCube sold 21.7m units versus the N64’s 32m (itself down on the SNES’s 49m units); the DS’s 154m sales were followed by the 3DS’s 75m. Then there were those aforementioned, dismal sales of the Wii U compared to the Wii.
Given that Nintendo – wisely, as it turns out – opted to consolidate its handheld and console market with the Switch, it becomes clearer than ever how important it is to get the Switch 2’s design, marketing and launch strategy just right.
It’s little wonder, then, that the latest reports suggest that Nintendo isn’t seeking to reinvent the wheel when it comes to the Switch 2.
According to predictions made by Japanese analyst Dr Serkan Toto, who recently spoke to GamesIndustry.biz, Nintendo’s next console will be the equivalent of a ‘Pro’ model of the Switch rather than a whole new system. In other words, it’ll look and feel broadly the same, but with more powerful tech beavering away under the bonnet – perhaps bringing it broadly into line with the visual prowess of other current-gen consoles.
Even this cautious approach has risks attached, though. On their respective launches, the branding of both the 3DS and Wii U brought with them a certain amount of confusion, with widespread assumptions that these were only slight iterations on the DS and Wii rather than the major technical upgrades they actually were. I can still remember one tabloid newspaper incorrectly reporting that the 3DS was essentially identical to the DS, with the only difference being a stereoscopic display. The 3DS’s sales surged eventually, but only after a fumbled launch and a somewhat red-faced price cut hastily announced few months later. (In an attempt to placate irked early adopters who paid for more for their consoles , Nintendo offered free game downloads and an ‘ambassador’ digital certificate. We were overwhelmed.)
Given how much is riding on the Switch 2, Nintendo will no doubt be at pains to avoid that kind of scenario occurring again. Whatever form the Big N’s next system takes, though, we shouldn’t have too long to wait before we see something official, at least if that Tokyo-based analyst’s crystal ball gazing is correct; Dr Soto believes we’ll see the Switch’s successor emerge in 2024.
Here’s hoping that Nintendo’s learned from its own history, and doesn’t call the system the Switch U…
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